Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
