Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
